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I wanted to chime in on the Steem Dollar discussion because so few seem to grasp the full economic picture. This post is for educational purposes only and is not an attempt to sway the discussion in either direction or to indicate my preferences. I believe that everyone should be operating from an accurate as possible understanding.
Law of Conservation of Risk
At any given moment in time risk can never be created nor destroyed, only transferred. In this case, the risk we are referring to is the volatility of cryptocurrency. This volatility is rooted in changing market perceptions which in turn impact the supply and demand.
In order to create a price-stable currency, such as the Steem Dollar, you must transfer risks from one group of people to another. The Steem Dollar transfers its volatility to STEEM. This means that the profits from holding STEEM increase when STEEM is growing and the losses increase when STEEM is falling.
There is an even trade between STEEM holders and Steem Dollar holders. When STEEM grows value is transferred to STEEM, when STEEM falls, value is transferred to Steem Dollars.
Impact of Interest
Normally people have to pay interest in order to borrow money. This means that there is a cost associated with purchasing leverage. This cost is worth it anytime the growth of STEEM is greater than the interest rate paid on STEEM Dollars. If STEEM grows slower than the interest rate, then borrowing SBD is a bad investment. If it grows faster than the interest rate then it is a good investment.
Long Term Perspective
If your long term view is that STEEM will be worth less than it is today, then buying Steem Dollars and converting to STEEM at the low makes the most sense. If your long term view is that STEEM will be worth 10x or more, then you want the network to have as much Steem Dollars as possible.
Only 10% of STEEM is used as collateral for outstanding SBD
The term's of the SBD smart contract are that only 10% of the STEEM network is pledged as collateral for the debt. This means that the network's maximum "loss" is 10% of equity. There is no "infinite dilution" caused by SBD; instead, there is a hard upper limit.
The Steem Dollar serves as a competing currency to STEEM, but it also serves as a bridge into STEEM. SBD existences makes STEEM more volatile which detracts from its appeal as a currency. It is hard to bootstrap currencies without bridges from existing currencies. Ultimately the market will pick the best currency. The Steem Dollar's fate is tied to the Federal Reserve and may die on its own.
So either STEEM falls and the SBD becomes pegged to STEEM or STEEM grows and SBD contributes to boosting the gains.
The biggest risk is unrealistic expectations of normal users who would be unjustifiably upset if SBD was suddenly pegged to STEEM.
@dantheman - neither Steem nor the SteemDollar will fail :)
I have been on the phone dialing millionaire friends all day today, wishing them a merry christmas and to pitch steemit to them, and all I get in return is smiley-faces and thumbs up - they want to invest in this next generation social media system.
I am telling you the truth
And let me be blunt - as long as people like ME is dialing the telephone getting people IN - you will see no failure, so start planning for SUCCESS, because we - the ANGELS will make you RICHER then you could ever imagine you would ever be.
That being said - I call Norway from Peru, and even on Skype the cost of operation is heavy with no commissions (yet) - so @dantheman, please make sure that my witness @fyrst-witness is upvoted and in the top 19, and I will keep on keeping on - and you will never ever starve.
And also - Come on @steemspeak radio today or tonight - http://steemspeak.com and talk with us - we have had every witness and super-user on, it is a huge community of positive steemit-people with many talents, and we really want to hear you communicate with us in words uttered from a human voice, you are among friends!
We respect, love and treasure your persona, your work and your dedication, so expect to be welcomed as a KING when you arrive!
I am sure @sneak and @ned can testify to SteemSpeak being a very nice place where you feel welcome and at home.
Thank you for being awesome, you are an inspiration to more people then you recognize.
Sincerely and in complete friendliness
@fyrstikken
@fyrstikken Seriously. Berniesanders is far from the only one reacting to your behaviour and btw it's not like you havn't used the flag yourself when you wanted to silence someone. (see me for example)
Such a rich person with so many "millionaire friends" and yet your mentality is to beg to be upvoted.
You think Steemit would fail without you? Then Steemit would have been BUILT to fail and it would need serious rebuilding. ASAP.
I see no higher moral standards, only some guy pretending to be seriously interested in the wellbeing of this community and treating it like another pump and dump.
"I am sure . . . can testify to SteemSpeak being a very nice place where you feel welcome and at home."
Let me testify: I left the server because I'm tired with being part of the crowd supporting your childish behaviour.
There are certainly many sides to all men, but you're no hero and you can stop pretending you are one.
Your post is a good economic explanation. I do not really see it as a pro or con argument in the current debate. Personally, I think we need to focus on growing STEEM now. As much as I liked SP, I think it failed in this context, while SBD has been something of a distraction. Short term, if you want to scrap SBD, go ahead, because the demand and volume aren't there to utilize it yet.
Longer term, I know that a price stable cryptocurrency is a dream for you and for many people. I can only guess that, if SBD is taken off the boards for now, you will bring back a price stable currency model at some point. And I'm sure you have learned more this time about what works well and what might be improved in that model. Longer term, a price stable currency has an important role. BitUSD, SBD, ? Maybe the third time will be the charm. For now, let's go full STEEM ahead and take down Bitcoin.
As long as only 10% of the liquid Steem is blocked into an alternate currency like SBD, I personally consider SBD an interesting experiment. But just an experiment. From a theoretical point of view, SBD is "working".
The real validation will come if there will be market demand. If people have a way to spend their SBD, then there will also be demand for it. If it's just a theoretical experiment, it will be dwarfed as just a "theoretical experiment".
A currency is ulterior to a market, to a stream of transactions. If there aren't any transactions, as brilliant as the mathematical model behind a currency is, there won't be any adoption.
This reminds me of another experiment, in languages this time. People invented an artificial language called esperanto. Guess what, nobody used it.
The real problem is a marketplace, not a currency. If we have a place where we could sell stuff, we can invent 20 different currencies and nobody will have a problem with that. I'm eagerly waiting for the roadmap of Steem. A marketplace will certainly make all these comments about SBD obsolete. At the end of the day, people just want to be able to buy and sell safely and profitably.
It is a tough call..
On one hand, there is a risk to both the network and SBD holder due to the debt level reaching high levels. I have covered the main reasons against SBD in this post here: SBD Debt Issue - Riding the STEEM Price Roller Coaster.
As far as reasons for SBD, here is what I wrote in another post:
SBD is beneficial for merchants. Merchants are really the ones that need a 'stable' currency in order to function.
For an actual business to try and sell their goods and services (which have fixed costs to produce) they need to be able to set fixed prices. Having a stable and widely used currency will attract more merchants to sell their goods and services using the digital currency.
Merchants are beneficial to STEEM holders because "non crypto" users will have more things that they can do with their earnings from the site.
I remember trying to explain the money thing to my non crypto friends, and lots of people lost interest when they heard you have to register in an exchange, provide your bank account information, trade your SBD (or STEEM) for BTC, and then sell the BTC to get cash. I did this on behalf of many of my friends, but not everybody is going to know somebody who can do this for them.
If someone could see that they can take what they earn and go buy an i-Phone (or whatever other good/service they are interested in) in the internal marketplace using their earnings from the site - that would be huge!
One small thing that I think could help would be to introduce a way to "throttle" SBD production in ways other than the forced measures that get imposed when the debt gets too high. One simple way to do this would be to give users another payout option: 50% SP / 50% STEEM. At the very least, it would slow down the rate at which the network produces SBD, which would reduce the amount that SBD exaggerates the volatility of STEEM.