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We are officially at 0% SBD print rate. This means all post payouts are 50% Steem and 50% Steem Power with no SBD in the distribution of post rewards.
https://i.imgur.com/zy6sD32.png
This is the result of a large amount of SBD being held and SBD is worth more than $1 USD making conversion unattractive (if it was available).
Top SBD Holders
User
SBD Balance
bittrex
10,465,347.79
freedom
944,780.18
upbitsteemhot
544,269.57
poloniex
451,069.61
gopax-deposit
152,857.84
openledger-dex
104,886.90
blocktrades
100,943.14
created
85,999.24
alpha
38,656.94
ipromote
32,610.72
steemmonsters
29,499.07
cecil0414
26,818.98
me-tarzan
23,843.90
enki
22,442.73
i-d
19,906.85
xeldal
18,896.65
honeybeee
17,761.97
minnowbooster
16,000.53
bhuz
15,000.00
Where is all the SBD?
While some of these users are exchanges, many are not. As of right now, there is 15,263,289.8200 SBD on the Steem platform. According to the blockchain, there is 15,698,673 SBD in circulation. That means a bulk of it is on the Steem platform. Steem has roughly 287,937,840 in circulation.
Why are payments in Steem and Steem Power and not SBD and Steem Power?
The Steem blockchain has a built-in safety net if the debt ratio (total SBD in existence / total Steem market cap) gets too high. If this debt ratio goes above 2% author rewards will payout in Steem instead of SBD from 0% Steem at 2% and 100% Steem at 5%. We are currently past 5% debt ratio and is the reason why post rewards are paid out in only Steem and Steem power. If the debt ratio exceeds 10% of the Steem market cap then the SBD->Steem conversion will no longer honor the $1 worth of Steem per SBD (haircut rule).
There is currently a proposal by @timcliff that has been approved in hard fork 20 (HF20) to change the SBD payout rate to start at 9% until 10% instead of 2% to 5%. This will allow SBD to continue to be printed in high debt ratio (5.49%) scenarios like the one we are in now.
Why is the debt ratio rising so fast?
There are two reasons for this, the first is because the conversion of SBD to Steem is no longer available. This feature was removed from the condenser back in December but still exists on the blockchain. The only two ways to burn SBD and reduce the debt ratio is to convert SBD to Steem using the blockchain conversion or send SBD to @null (directly or using Promote functionality).
The second reason is after the $20 SBD price last year, many users are waiting for the next pump to sell SBD at a huge profit and would not do the conversion to Steem even if it was available and SBD was $1 or less.
What is the difference between SBD and Steem?
Steem is the official token for the Steem platform. Steem Backed Dollars are a short-term resource that acts as a contract on the blockchain to be cashed in at a later date for exactly $1 worth of Steem (with exceptions). As of right now, that functionality is not available anymore from the web UI.
SBD was designed to be a pegged asset that makes commerce easier. If you want to sell a $10 widget you know you can price it for 10 SBD, no external shopping cart is needed to calculate $10 worth of Steem. With a broken peg, you are unable to make that assumption. While SBD remains broken, the point of even having SBD is lost.
Questions to think about
-
What happens when we pass 10% debt ratio and continue to grow past it without no easy way to convert SBD to Steem? (This conversion is not suggested any time SBD is greater than $1 USD).
-
What happens when freedom decides to sell his 944,780.18 SBD? Most of the large SBD holders are exchanges and that liquidity is required to maintain their market. Freedom is an outlier that can have a significant impact on the market. In fact, he alone owns 6.2% of the SBD currently available.
-
If SBD remains unpegged to $1 USD, is there any reason to keep it?
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@smooth | Aug. 10, 2018, 5:06 a.m. | Votes: 20 | [
VOTE ]
> What happens when we pass 10% debt ratio and continue to grow past it without no easy way to convert SBD to Steem?
Nothing changes really (in terms of SBD; it does imply a further 50% drop in the price of STEEM which would certainly be painful all around). Since no one is converting SBD the amount of STEEM you would get by converting it is irrelevant. If SBD does drop to $1 or below and it starts getting converted then the ratio would probably drop (eventually).
BTW, the main reason conversion was removed from the UI was people were doing it anyway when SBD was worth $10 and burning 90% of their money. To protect people who didn't really understand what was going on, that option was disabled. However, with SBD back close to $1 it would be reasonable to re-enable it (I'm also told that it is possible to perform conversions using steemconnect for people who don't want to use the CLI).
> What happens when freedom decides to sell his 944,780.18 SBD?
The price will drop! If it drops to $1 or below then people will start converting it and the ratio will drop.
> Most of the large SBD holders are exchanges and that liquidity is required to maintain their market.
Most likely the SBD held in exchange accounts is actually owned by exchange customers and not the exchanges themselves. Most of it isn't being used directly for liquidity, it is just being held. Who those customers are, what they want the SBD for, what they will do in the future are all unknown.
> If SBD remains unpegged to $1 USD, is there any reason to keep it?
As you noted there are improvements already being made in the upcoming hard fork. Also, at a current price of $1.03, I wouldn't consider it to be all that unpegged (this is within the range observed for other decentralized pegged tokens such as DAI or BitUSD). You can take a glass half empty approach and say that SBD going up to $12 proves that pegging doesn't work or half full approach and say that it dropping back down from $12 to $1-$1.20 and staying there for the past couple of months proves that pegging does work (if imperfectly). Eye of the beholder I suppose.
BTW, a large part of why the print rate is zero has almost nothing to do with SBD and everything to do with the STEEM price dropping. When STEEM isn't worth much the whole system is hobbled in a lot of ways, SBD being one of them but hardly the only one.
@smooth | Aug. 15, 2018, 11:17 p.m. | Votes: 2 | [
VOTE ]
There is no basis for a price feed bias at this time. Nothing in the white paper (even accounting for subsequent changes in the consensus rules or understanding of the economics) would suggest it. Setting that aside, if a price feed bias were used, let's consider how that would work:
- Lower price feed. Would increase the apparent 'debt ratio' and have no effect on the amount of SBD or STEEM being printed, and would overpay SBD holders who convert by giving them more STEEM than deserved.
- Higher price feed. Would decrease the apparent 'debt ratio' and potentially start printing (an unjustified amount of) SBD instead of STEEM. However once this SBD eventually gets converted to STEEM it would result in more STEEM than is currently being created, increasing the overall inflation/dilution rate. This is dumb and irresponsible.
The rest of your comment is largely incoherent.
The SBD smart contract includes (since almost two years) the possibility that (based on 10% market cap) SBD may shift from being pegged (if imperfectly) to USD to being pegged to STEEM. If and when the ratio subsequently decreases, it returns to being pegged to USD. Any SBD holders who don't like taking that risk not only had the opportunity to sell over the past nine months at prices as high as about $10 but can still sell or convert at about $1.
Everyone is in the same boat here, we would all like the price of STEEM to rise. But if it doesn't the system includes reasonable rules for how to handle that situation with respect to SBD.
> Who else is going to pay to bring that 15+ million SBD Debt down? Who is going to burn it?
People may burn some coins (for example see the promoted feature) but that certainly isn't part of the consensus rules. No one should count on any amount of coins being burned.
BTW, referring to SBD as a debt instrument or debt-like instrument is an analogy. It isn't literal. "Debt" implies some sort of claim against an asset, which doesn't exist here. SBD holders have the right to trade their tokens or convert them according to the smart contract, that is all.
@smooth | Aug. 10, 2018, 6:59 a.m. | Votes: 2 | [
VOTE ]
> I think from an investor perspective, a lot changes.
STEEM investor or SBD investor? Actually in neither case does much change right at 10%. As the ratio exceeds 10% then SBD becomes gradually less backed by STEEM. If SBD is worth more than $1 then clearly SBD investors aren't counting on being fully backed by STEEM anyway (they aren't). If isn't worth more than $1, then it would be getting converted and its supply would be shrinking, effectively resolving the situation (albeit at an uncertain rate).
Of course, if the ratio hits 10% that would currently mean that STEEM has dropped another 50% which clearly matters a lot to STEEM investors, but again the exact 10% threshold doesn't change anything here, its just an arbitrary number when looking at the STEEM price doing what it does (fluctuate).
So I'm not sure what you are getting at here.
> I disagree, it is extremely unpegged
Possibly you are right, but this is really just guesswork. Market conditions change and just because SBD got pumped, apparently mostly from Korea, in the past doesn't mean it would happen exactly that way in the future. There are some dramatic differences, for example the supply of SBD being 15 million rather than 1 million, where it was before the first SBD pump in 2017 (the increase occurred due to the slow, but not nonexistant, action of the pegging mechanism). That 15x ratio might matter, or it might not. Likewise for the planned changes in HF20. I don't see any way to know for sure in advance.