Finally Alt Season?
BTC dominance has been struggling as of late. This comes as a bit of a surprise since it was in a smaller uptrend for more than half a year. This week we are seeing a death cross forming for the 50 and 100 SMA which we haven't seen since 2020. It's time to take a closer look.
First, we can see that the current uptrend has lasted much longer than in the 2018-2020 time frame. For almost 4 years BTC.D hasn't really shown any real weakness. Similarly like in the last upward phase, it seems that the ratio was going to go up for a second peak. But the real Alt season started only after that peak. In 2025 we saw a rejection in the 60s from a long year resistance (circle). Until now it was hard to say how long this phase would last - although it seems clear that a downward phase (aka the Alt season) was going to come into play at some time.
As of this week we may be getting a first good confirmation from the SMAs.
While a golden cross by the two averages does not work too well for signaling BTC season, it has coincided almost perfectly with the last Alt season in late 2020. Now, after almost 6 years (!) we have once again seen the averages crossing each other. Are we now about to witness the long awaited Alt season?
I guess we won't truly know until it's there. But the SMA indicator is pretty strong imo. There may still be a short upward rally taking the ratio back into the 60s. But the beginning of a downtrend seems now only a matter of time. Should it happen, we could expect something like this:
It will probably look like last time: a shorter and stronger downward push with a longer consolidation in the 40s. Two things to point out:
- The "crash" will probably be less severe this time since there is strong support in the 40s.
- The overall Alt season may be extended this time, with each Alt season taking longer than the previous one.
Conclusion
If you have followed my blog, I have long talked about the coming Alt season. Like everyone else I was pretty disappointed with it never materializing. However, the chart above suggests a strong likelihood of it finally starting and a potentially much longer phase as well.
As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!
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